대한민국의 미래를 디자인하는 글로벌 집현전경제ㆍ인문사회연구회

주요내용

요약/내용

전 세계가 팬데믹의 긴 터널을 벗어나려는 시점에서 우크라이나 전쟁과 세계적인 경제 위기라는 새
로운 어려움에 직면했습니다. 우리 역시도 각종 사건과 사고와 함께 많은 젊은 생명을 잃은 슬픔에 온
사회가 잠겨 있습니다. 올봄 새로 시작한 새 정부에도 극복해야 할 거대한 과제가 다가오고 있습니다.
금융을 필두로 경제 전 분야의 어려움이 심화되고 있고 정치적으로는 양극화가 점점 더 심해지고 있습
니다. 사회 각계각층이 지혜와 노력을 모아서 다가오는 실현을 함께 넘어가야 하겠습니다.
경영, 경제, 사회, 정치의 4개 학회는 지난 3월 31일 함께 학술대회를 열고 새 정부의 기대하는 바
와 재현의 말씀을 드렸습니다. 하지만 그 뒤에 예상치 못한 대외적 불확실성과 위기가 닥쳤고, 국내에
도 갈등의 파도가 점점 높아지고 있습니다. 우선 국제적인 차원에서 미･중 패권 경쟁의 심화와 러시아
-우크라이나 전쟁은 글로벌 공급망 재편과 더불어 에너지 위기를 야기시켰으며, 인플레 대처를 위한
미국의 금리 인상은 한국을 비롯한 세계 경제에 커다란 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 국내적인 차원에서도
새 정부가 들어섰음에도 불구하고 여야를 비롯한 정치권의 갈등은 여전히 지속되고 있습니다. 더구나
최근에는 많은 젊은이들이 희생된 이태원 참사까지 발생하였습니다. 이러한 상황에서 4대 학회는 지
난 3월 학술대회의 후속 연구로서 변화와 위기의 시대에 부응하여 우리 사회가 나아갈 방향을 다시 한
번 진단하고자 합니다.
이를 위해 전문가들을 넘어 정치인과 기업인들까지 포함된 설문조사를 실시하여 이를 바탕으로 전
환의 시대에 이 위기를 어떻게 극복해 나갈 수 있을지를 논의하고, 우리가 나아가야 할 방향을 모색해
보고자 합니다. 어려운 시기에 무엇보다도 중요한 것은 많은 사람들의 의견에 귀를 기울이고 이를 통
해 많은 국민들의 공감대를 도모하면서 문제 해결의 대안을 찾아나가는 것입니다. 이 보고서가 우리
사회가 당면한 위기를 극복하고, 대한민국의 지속적인 발전을 모색하는데 기여할 수 있기를 바랍니다.

목차

제1장 대한민국의 지속가능발전을 위한 정책과제
제1절 한국사회의 지속발전을 위한 정책과제:
여야 국회의원, 기업인, 사회과학자 조사결과 분석 ·································································· 3
1. 조사개요 ····································································································································· 3
가. 연구진 ··········································································································································· 3
나. 조사모집단 ···································································································································· 4
다. 조사의 내용과 방법 ······················································································································· 4
라. 응답자 특성 ·································································································································· 6
제2절 조사결과 ·························································································································· 8
1. 여당･야당 국회의원 ···················································································································· 8
가. 현재 정책 방향에 대한 평가 ········································································································· 8
나. 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 10
다. 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 18
라. 주요 현안별 개혁과제에 대한 인식 ····························································································· 24
마. 현 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가 ······························································································ 29
2. 기업인 ······································································································································ 30
가. 현 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가 ······························································································ 30
나. 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 31
다. 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 37
라. 현재 정책 방향에 대한 평가 ······································································································· 41
3. 사회과학자 ······························································································································· 42
가. 현재 정책 방향에 대한 평가 ······································································································· 42
나. 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 44
다. 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 50
라. 주요 현안별 개혁과제에 대한 인식 ····························································································· 56
마. 현 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가 ······························································································ 57
바. 기타 ············································································································································ 58
경제⋅인문사회연구회4. 조사집단 간 비교분석 ·············································································································· 61
가. 현재 정책 방향에 대한 평가 ······································································································· 62
나. 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 63
다. 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ··················································································· 65
라. 주요 현안별 개혁과제에 대한 인식 ····························································································· 67
마. 현 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가 ······························································································ 71
바. 기타 ············································································································································ 72
제2장 위기와 전환의 시대에 대한민국의 나아갈 길
제1절 함께 잘사는 혁신강국 ····································································································· 77
1. 혁신과 국가경쟁력 ··················································································································· 77
가. 대전환, 복합위기 시대의 대한민국, 어디로 갈 것인가? ······························································ 77
나. 대한민국은 혁신강국으로의 도약이 가능한가? ············································································ 77
다. 함께 잘사는 혁신강국 ················································································································· 79
라. 비전: 함께 잘사는 혁신강국 ······································································································· 83
제2절 인구감소, 지방소멸 – 치명적 위기인가? ········································································· 84
1. 패러다임 전환의 모색 ·············································································································· 84
2. 역대 지방･인구정책의 성적과 평가 ·························································································· 85
3. 인구･지방문제의 재인식 ··········································································································· 86
가. 지방의 재인식 ····························································································································· 86
나. 인구의 재인식 ····························································································································· 87
다. 인구문제와 공간문제의 ‘통합적’ 접근 ························································································· 87
4. 인구감소 시대 지방의 생존･발전 전략 ····················································································· 88
가. 정치권 배제 ··································································································································88
나. 다양성 및 차별성 경쟁 ··············································································································· 89
다. 세계화 + 지방화 ························································································································· 90
라. 소결 ············································································································································ 90
제3절 한국정치의 미래와 정치개혁 ··························································································· 91제4절 Global Poly-Crisis와 재정정책 대응 방향 ·································································· 101
1. Global Poly-Crisis와 정책 대응 ·························································································· 102
가. 단계별 전개과정 ······················································································································· 102
나. 다중위기의 특징: 위기의 중첩성과 확대 전이 가능성 ······························································· 105
다. 정책적 접근 ······························································································································ 106
라. 재정정책 대응 방향 ·················································································································· 109
2. 우리나라 재정정책 방향 평가 ································································································ 111
가. 건전재정 기조 구현 ·················································································································· 111
나. 지출구조조정 성과와 한계 ········································································································ 113
다. 재정준칙 도입 필요성과 정부안 평가 ······················································································· 116
라. 감세기조 세제개편안 평가 ········································································································ 125
제5절 토론 ······························································································································ 128
제3장 종합토론
제1절 종합토론 ······················································································································· 135
1. 한국경제학회 제언 ················································································································· 135
2. 한국정치학회 제언 ················································································································· 136
3. 한국경영학회 제언 ················································································································· 137
4. 한국사회학회 제언 ················································································································· 138표 차례
<표 1-1> 응답자 분포 ·······························································································································7
<표 1-2> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가 : 여당 ······················9
<표 1-3> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가 : 야당 ······················9
<표 1-4> 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도 평가: 여당 ··················································································13
<표 1-5> 42개 주요 국정과제 수행도 평가: 여당 ··················································································14
<표 1-6> 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도 평가: 야당 ··················································································15
<표 1-7> 42개 주요 국정과제 수행도 평가: 야당 ··················································································16
<표 1-8> 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도 평가: 여당 ··················································································19
<표 1-9> 20개 주요 정책과제 수행도 평가: 여당 ··················································································20
<표 1-10> 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도 평가: 야당 ················································································21
<표 1-11> 20개 주요 정책과제 수행도 평가: 야당 ················································································22
<표 1-12> 윤석열 정부 출범 이후 사회변동에 대한 평가: 기업인 ·························································31
<표 1-13> 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도 평가: 기업인 ·············································································34
<표 1-14> 42개 주요 국정과제 수행도 평가: 기업인 ·············································································35
<표 1-15> 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도 평가: 기업인 ·············································································39
<표 1-16> 20개 주요 정책과제 수행도 평가: 기업인 ·············································································40
<표 1-17> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가: 기업인 ··················42
<표 1-18> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가: 사회과학자 ···········43
<표 1-19> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가 비교: 사회과학자 ·· 43
<표 1-20> 42개 주요 국정과제 중 중요도 상위 13개 정책과제 ····························································44
<표 1-21> 42개 주요 국정과제 중 수행도 상위 13개 정책과제 ····························································45
<표 1-22> 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도 평가: 사회과학자 ······································································46
<표 1-23> 42개 주요 국정과제 수행도 평가: 사회과학자 ······································································47
<표 1-24> 20개 주요 정책과제 중 중요도 상위 13개 정책과제 ····························································51
<표 1-25> 20개 주요 정책과제 중 수행도 상위 13개 정책과제 ····························································51
<표 1-26> 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도 평가: 사회과학자 ······································································52
<표 1-27> 20개 주요 정책과제 수행도 평가: 사회과학자 ······································································53
<표 1-28> 현안별 핵심 개혁과제 (1순위+2순위) (1) ·············································································56
<표 1-29> 현안별 핵심 개혁과제 (1순위+2순위) (2) ·············································································57
<표 1-30> 윤석열 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가: 사회과학자 ······························································58<표 1-31> 정부의 정책적 관심이 필요한 집단 ·······················································································58
<표 1-32> 기관 신뢰도: 사회과학자 ·······································································································59
<표 1-33> 기관 신뢰도 비교: 사회과학자 ·······························································································61
<표 1-34> 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가: 전체 ···················62
<표 1-35> 현안별 핵심 개혁과제 (1순위+2순위) (1) ·············································································68
<표 1-36> 현안별 핵심 개혁과제 (1순위+2순위) (2) ·············································································69
<표 1-37> 현안별 핵심 개혁과제 (1순위+2순위) (3) ·············································································70
<표 1-38> 윤석열 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가: 전체 ········································································71
<표 1-39> 정부의 정책적 관심이 필요한 집단(1순위+2순위) : 전체 ······················································72
<표 1-40> 기관신뢰도 상관관계: 전체 ····································································································73
<표 1-41> 기관 신뢰도 비교: 전체 ·········································································································73그림 차례
[그림 1-1] 중요도-수행도 분석 (importance-performance analysis: IPA) ·········································5
[그림 1-2] 정책 분야별 ‘현재 대한민국이 바람직한 길로 가고 있는가’에 대한 평가 : 종합 ···················9
[그림 1-3] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ·································································17
[그림 1-4] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가 ·································································23
[그림 1-5] 저출산·인구고령화 대책 ········································································································24
[그림 1-6] 경제의 저성장 극복 ···············································································································25
[그림 1-7] 정치의 민주주의 강화 ···········································································································25
[그림 1-8] 사회 불평등 완화 ··················································································································26
[그림 1-9] 노동개혁 ································································································································26
[그림 1-10] 연금개혁 ······························································································································27
[그림 1-11] 교육개혁 ····························································································································27
[그림 1-12] 외교안보 정책 추진 ·············································································································28
[그림 1-13] 국제협력 강화 ···················································································································28
[그림 1-14] 핵심전략산업 육성 ·············································································································29
[그림 1-15] 윤석열 정부 출범 이후 사회변동 평가 ················································································30
[그림 1-16] 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 기업인 (1) ······················································32
[그림 1-17] 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 기업인 (2) ······················································33
[그림 1-18] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 기업인 ················································36
[그림 1-19] 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 기업인 ······························································38
[그림 1-20] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 기업인 ················································41
[그림 1-21] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 사회과학자 (1) ·····································48
[그림 1-22] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 사회과학자 (2) ·····································50
[그림 1-23] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 사회과학자 (1) ·····································54
[그림 1-24] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 사회과학자 (2) ·····································55
[그림 1-25] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 전체 (1) ···············································63
[그림 1-26] 정부의 42개 주요 국정과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 전체 (2) ···············································64
[그림 1-27] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 전체 (1) ···············································66
[그림 1-28] 정부의 20개 주요 정책과제 중요도-수행도 평가: 전체 (2) ·············································67
[그림 2-1] 함께 잘 사는 혁신강국 프레임워크 ·······················································································80