대한민국의 미래를 디자인하는 글로벌 집현전경제ㆍ인문사회연구회

주요내용

요약/내용

한국은 장기 저성장과 경기 침체 그리고 경제 산업 구조의 급속한 전환을 경험하고 있다. 이 과정
에서 새로운 경제 성장 동력을 마련하고 대한민국의 지속가능한 발전 패러다임을 모색하는 것은 한
국사회의 중요한 과제이다. 이런 문제의식 하에서 본 연구는 5개의 주요 과제를 검토하고 정책대안
을 제시했다. 첫째로, 현재 한국은 글로벌 공급망 구조 재편에 따른 국제 경제 환경의 변화에 능동
적이고 주도적인 대응이 필요한 상황으로, 만약 적절한 대응 방안을 찾지 못할 경우 심각한 경제안
보 위기로 이어질 수 있다. 따라서 글로벌 정치･경제 환경변화로 인한 글로벌 공급망 구조 재편의
흐름과 동향을 살펴보고, 이어 미중 전략경쟁의 양상과 향후 전망 그리고 주변국에의 영향을 예측
해본 뒤, 최근 한국 정부가 추진 중인 첨단산업 발전전략의 의미와 효과 그리고 개선점을 분석하고,
최종적으로는 우리 정부와 기업 그리고 대학의 역할과 협력방안 등을 제시했다.
둘째로, 한국은 국내적 차원과 국제적 차원에서 정치적 분열과 갈등을 겪고 있다. 국내적 차원에
선 정치적 양극화가 심화되고 있는 상황에서 선거제도 개편이 정치양극화를 포함한 정치 갈등을 해
소할 수 있을지 살펴보았다. 또한, 최근 선거제도 개편 관련 실시된 여론조사 결과 분석을 토대로선
거제도개편에 관한 국민여론을 파악하고, 정치양극화 해소 방안으로 추진되는 선거제도 개편의 가
능성과 한계에 대해 살펴보았다. 다른 한편, 국제적 차원에선 미중 간의 갈등이 심화되고 있는 가운
데 새로운 통합의 방향을 모색했다. 미중 충돌과 국제질서 불안정 가능성에 대한 이론적 설명이 부
족한 가운데 본 연구는 대안적 시각으로 방어적 현실주의를 검토하고, 이를 바탕으로 미중의 그 랜
드바겐을 통한 새로운 협력과 통합의 질서구축의 가능성을 살펴보았다.
셋째로, 학령인구감소로 인해 직접 타격을 받게 되는 대학 지원에 관한 정부의 역할과 공공기관
의 경쟁력 강화 문제를 검토했다. 한국은 유례없는 저출생의 여파를 겪으면서 이른바 인구소멸의
위기를 경험하고 있다. 이런 현상은 사회 다양한 분야에 영향을 미치고 있는데, 그 중 하나가 학령
인구 감소로 인한 대학의 위기이다. 학령인구의 극적인 감소는 이미 현실화 되고 있는데, 본 연구는
이로 인한 고등교육의 위기를 진단하고 수도권과 지방 대학이 공존할 수 있는 방안을 모색하고 이
를 위한 중앙정부, 지방자치단체의 역할을 제안했다. 한편, 공공기관은 정부예산의 1.3배인 969조
(2022년)를 사용하고 있다. 따라서 공공기관 경쟁력은 국민의 삶과 국가경제에 큰 영향을 끼칠 수
밖에 없다. 본 연구는 공공기관의 경쟁력 강화를 위해 효율성의 가치와 공공성의 가치가 공존해야
함을 강조하고, 공공기관의 균형적 공공성 강화를 위한 정부 역할과 시장 기능에 대한 제안했다.
넷째로, 우리 경제의 성장률은 추세적으로 하락해왔다. 경제 성숙에 따른 성장률 하락은 일견 자
연스러운 현상이나, 2020년대 이후에는 저출생･고령화 등 인구구조 변화에 따른 노동공급 감소가
성장의 하방요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 본 연구는 총요소생산성 시나리오별로 장기경제성장률을 전
국문요약망하고 그 정책적 시사점을 제시했다. 또한, 저출생･고령화는 노동시장에도 영향을 상당한 영향을
미칠 수밖에 없다. 이 연구에선 장래의 인구변화가 인적자본을 고려한 노동투입량 변화에 미치는
영향과 각 산업 및 직종의 취업인구에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과를 제시했다. 마지막으로, 한국의
총인구(주민등록인구)는 2019년 11월 말 정점을 기록한 이후 꾸준히 감소하고 있다. 아직까지는
고령자의 경제활동 참가 증가로 노동력의 감소로 이어지지는 않으나, 인구 고령화의 충격은 나날이
심해지고 있고, 인구절벽은 가시화되고 있다. 더구나 한국의 출산율은 세계 최저 수준이다. 출산율
반등을 통한 위기 극복은 당분간 기대하기 어려운 실정이다. 즉, 인구절벽의 위기를 맞이하고 있는
한국 사회의 활로를 찾기 위해서, 이민정책은 필수가 되었다. 본 연구는 한국의 이민정책 핵심 요소
별로 쟁점과 과제를 제시하고, 그 실행방안을 ① 정부, ② 언론, ③ 학계 전문가의 토론을 통해 구체
적으로 찾아보았다.
이상의 5대 과제를 검토하기 위해 본 연구는 각 주제에 전문성이 있는 5대 학회(한국경영학회, 한
국경제학회, 한국사회학회, 한국정치학회, 한국행정학회)가 중심이 되어 경제･인문사회연구회와 공
동으로 학술대회를 개최하였다. 학술대회는 각각의 연구주제를 반영해서 6개의 세션으로 구성했고,
5개의 세션은 5개의 주제에 관해 대학과 정책연구기관에서 해당 분야 전문성을 가진 발표자와 지정
토론자로 구성했다. 특히, 5개 연구 주제는 서로 다른 학문 분과에 속하지만 각각의 주제가 서로 유
기적 연관을 맺어 연구가 진행될 수 있도록 하고자 했다. 이러한 학술대회를 개최해서 5대 과제에
대해 다음과 같은 정책 대안을 제시했다. 첫째, 글로벌 공급망 재편과 한국 첨단 산업의 발전을 위
해 반도체 공급망 리스크에 대한 체계적인 분석과 전략적 대응 역량을 키워야 하고, 반도체 인재 육
성 위해 대학･대학원을 확충하고, 관련 R&D 사업을 획기적으로 확대하며 반도체 학부와 대학원 신
설을 전폭 지원하여 질적･양적 인력 확충을 유도해야 한다. 또한, 기초기반 연구와 R&D 역량 강화
등 보다 획기적인 지원체계를 갖추어야 하고, 글로벌 공급망 구조 변화 분석을 위해 민관학 연합
‘GVC 포럼’ 발족이 필요하다.
둘째, 갈등과 분열의 시대 정치적 통합과 협력을 위해선, 우선 국내적 차원에서 정치적 양극화 등
한국이 당면한 문제를 해결하기 위해선 선거제도 개혁만으로는 한계가 있음을 직시하고 한국 민주
주의 제도 전반에 대한 검토가 필요하다. 이런 전반적 문제를 검토함에 있어 공론조사는 국민의 숙
고된 의견을 제공할 뿐 아니라, 적극적인 참여를 통한 교육의 효과도 있다. 따라서 독립성을 갖춘
공론조사 위원회 등을 설립하여, 국가의 주요사안에 대해 객관성과 신뢰성을 담보할 수 있는 공론
조사를 실시할 필요가 있다. 국제적 차원에선 미중갈등의 완화를 위해선 미국이 중국에게 상당한
양보를 하면서 역내 중국 지위와 영향력을 일정부분 받아들인다면 상당한 변화가 예상된다. 만약 미중간 그랜드바겐과 정책조정이 이루어지면 한미동맹과 한반도 정책, 북한 문제에도 영향을 미칠
것이기 때문에 이 문제를 주의할 필요가 있다.
셋째, 고등교육정책은 대학의 자율성과 유연성을 확대하는 방향으로 바뀌어야 한다. 고등교육기
관이 환경변화에 유연하게 반응하고, 사회가 요구하는 인재를 배출하기 위해서는 기본적으로 대학
에 큰 폭의 자율성 부여가 필요하다. 또한, 인재정책의 핵심은 인재양성기관의 유연성을 보장해 주
는 방향으로 바뀌어야 한다. 또한, 대학구조조정은 대학의 자율적 발전을 지원하기 위해 선 재정지
원, 후 성과관리로 개편할 필요가 있다. 규제혁신의 경우, 규제의 방향 타율적 규제에서 협치에 기
반한 단계적 자율 규제로 전환되어야 한다. 다른 한편, 공공기관의 경쟁력을 확보하기 위해선 효율
성과 공공성의 조화를 위한 제도혁신이 필요하다. 국제적 제도들은 사회적 가치, 공동체, 그리고
ESG 중심의 변화를 진행하고 있다. 따라서 우리 역시 폐쇄적이고 획일적인 기획에서 투명하고 다
양한 형태로 변해야 한다. 공공성, 공익성, 공동체성이 고려되는 기획과정이 필요하고, 시민들도 쉽
게 참여할 수 있는 기획으로 변화되어야 한다.
넷째, 저출산 고령화 시대 생산성을 높이기 위해선 대외 개방이 중요하다. 대외 개방은 흔히 상품
시장 개방을 연상시키지만, 인력 시장에서도 이런 개방을 한다면 부족한 인력을 보충할 수 있고, 이
를 통해 성장세 둔화도 일부 완화할 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 청년 인력 감소에 대응하기 위해서는 교
육개혁과 노동시장 개혁이 필요하다. 교육에 있어서 칸막이를 낮춰 노동시장이 필요로 하는 인적자
본을 충분히 축적하는 시스템을 구축하고, 노동시장에서는 탄력적으로 노동 인력이 이동할 기회를
제공해야 한다. 마지막으로 인구감소시대의 이민정책으로 논의되고 있는 (가칭)이민청에서 주력해
야 되는 것은 큰 그림을 그리고, 철학과 비전을 세우는 것에 있다. 이를 바탕으로 이민정책의 단계
화와 연계를 통해, 단기이민부터 정주이민까지 각 단계의 연계(이민트랙)를 만드는 작업이 필요하
다. 이 과정에서 이민자 통계를 개선 및 확충하고, 해외의 이민국가 전환 사례를 참고하여 사회통합
이 용이한 이주민 유입정책을 세워야 한다.

목차

제1장 연구개요
제1절 연구 배경 및 필요성 ···································································································21
제2절 연구내용 및 방법 ········································································································23
제2장 2023 한국사회의 과제와 전망: 전환의 시대, 한국 사회의 위기와 도전, 그리고 새로운 도약
제1절 글로벌 공급망 재편과 한국 첨단산업의 방향과 과제 ··················································31
1. 글로벌 공급망 구조재편과 한국산업의 대응: 반도체 산업을 중심으로 ·································31
1) 연구 배경과 목적 ···················································································································31
2) 주요 연구 내용 ·······················································································································33
2. 경제안보 시대, 첨단산업 정책방향 ·······················································································45
1) 연구 배경과 목적: 공급망 패러다임 변화와 이차전지 산업 ···················································45
2) 글로벌 공급망 재편에 따른 이차전치 국가전략 ······································································49
3) 글로벌 공급망 재편과 첨단산업 정책 ·····················································································51
3. 주요 토론 내용 ····················································································································53
제2절 갈등과 분열의 시대, 정치적 통합과 협력 방안 모색 ···················································55
1. 정치적 양극화와 선거제도 개혁 ···························································································55
1) 연구의 배경과 목적 ················································································································55
2) 주요 연구내용 ························································································································57
2. 미중 충돌과 협력의 국제질서 ·······························································································67
1) 연구의 배경과 목적 ················································································································67
2) 연구 주요 내용 ·······················································································································68
3. 주요 토론 내용 ····················································································································73
제3절 한정된 자원시대의 협력적 거버넌스와 정부혁신 ··························································76
1. 이중의 충격과 대학의 미래 ··································································································76
1) 연구배경 및 목적 ···················································································································76
2) 주요 연구 내용 ·······················································································································772. 공공기관의 경쟁력: 효율성인가? 공공성인가? ······································································84
1) 연구배경 및 목적 ···················································································································84
2) 주요 연구 내용 ·······················································································································86
3. 주요 토론내용 ······················································································································90
제4절 저출산･고령화가 한국경제의 잠재 성장에 미치는 영향 ···············································92
1. 인구고령화와 장기 경제성장률 ·····························································································92
1) 연구배경 및 목적 ···················································································································92
2) 주요 연구 내용 ·······················································································································93
2. 장래 인구변화가 노동시장에 미치는 영향: 전망과 과제 ·····················································100
1) 연구배경 및 목적 ·················································································································100
2) 주요 연구 내용 ····················································································································103
3. 주요 토론내용 ····················································································································115
제5절 인구감소시대의 이민정책 ···························································································118
1. 인구절벽과 이민정책 ··········································································································118
1) 연구배경 및 목적 ·················································································································118
2) 주요 연구 내용 ····················································································································119
2. 주요 토론내용 ····················································································································129
제3장 결론
제1절 요약 및 종합: 라운드 테이블 ····················································································135
제2절 정책적 시사점 ············································································································140경제･인문사회연구회
[표 2-1] 정당득표율과 의석비율 ···············································································································59
[표 2-2] 총선별 사표 현황 ·······················································································································59
[표 2-3] 선거제 개편 결의안 주요 내용(최종안) ······················································································60
[표 2-4] 한국의 의원정수 변화 ················································································································61
[표 3-1] 인공지능과 인지육체기능 변화 ···································································································77
[표 3-2] 2025년 가장 선호되는 기술적 가치 순위(Top 15 Skills for 2025) ·······································78
[표 3-3] 2021년 수도권/비수도권 충원율 ·······························································································80
[표 3-4] 2021년 대학 규모별 충원율 ······································································································80
[표 3-5] 2021년 대학 소재지별 충원율 ··································································································81
[표 3-6] 2021년 대학 계열별 충원율 ······································································································81
[표 3-7] 신기술분야 인력수급전망 ············································································································82
[표 4-1] OECD 회원국과 총요소생산성 ···································································································96
[표 4-2] 경제활동참가율 및 생산성증가 시나리오별 노동투입 변화 ·······················································108
[표 5-1] 2012-2017 외국인 및 이민자 고용 상황 조사 ······································································126
표 차례[그림 1-1] 반도체 관련 시대별 정치경제적 배경과 역사 ·········································································32
[그림 1-2] 연대별 반도체 제조업 주도 국가 및 글로벌 분업 구조의 변화 동인 ·····································33
[그림 1-3] 반도체 시장 성장 전망 ···········································································································34
[그림 1-4] 반도체 산업 Value Chain ·····································································································34
[그림 1-5] 반도체 산업 Global Value Chain ·························································································35
[그림 1-6] 반도체 산업 국가별 시장 점유율 ····························································································35
[그림 1-7] 국가별 반도체 생산능력의 변화(SEMI) ··················································································36
[그림 1-8] 글로벌 반도체 매출 점유율(2019년) ····················································································37
[그림 1-9] 국가별대표기업의첨단반도체 개발현황과격차 ··········································································37
[그림 1-10] 반도체 공정별 주요 기업의 매출액 ······················································································38
[그림 1-11] 반도체 전체의 공급망 ···········································································································38
[그림 1-12] 화웨이와 거래기업의 국적 비중 ····························································································38
[그림 1-13] 삼성전자 반도체 생산 거점 ··································································································39
[그림 1-14] 한국 수입의 가공단계별 구성비 비교 ···················································································40
[그림 1-15] 한국 수출의 가공단계별 구성비 비교 ···················································································40
[그림 1-16] 반도체 산업에 대한 정치적 개입 ··························································································41
[그림 1-17] 반도체 산업 국가별 산업정책 ·······························································································42
[그림 1-18] 각 나라별 반도체 산업 현황 ································································································42
[그림 1-19] 향후 반도체 산업 발전 전망 ································································································43
[그림 1-20] 한국 반도체 수출 현황 ·········································································································43
[그림 1-21] 한국 반도체 산업의 SWOT 분석 ·························································································44
[그림 1-22] 한국 반도체 산업 경쟁력 분석 ·····························································································44
[그림 1-23] 반도체 투자 인프라 구축지원 ·······························································································45
[그림 2-1] 이념적 양극화의 시계열적 분석 ······························································································55
[그림 2-2] 정서적 양극화의 시계열적 분석 ······························································································56
[그림 2-3] 21대 총선 강원도 선거구 현황 ······························································································62
[그림 2-4] 국회의원선거 제도 관련 인식 ·································································································64
[그림 2-5] 선거제 개편 여부 여론조사 결과 ····························································································65
[그림 2-6] 국회의원 선거구 크기 관련 여론조사 결과 ·············································································65
[그림 2-7] 비례대표 선출 범위 여론조사 결과 ·························································································65
[그림 2-8] 지역구와 비례 의원 구성 관련 여론조사 결과 ········································································66
[그림 2-9] 국회의원 숫자 여론조사 결과 ·································································································66
[그림 2-10] 미국의 인도-태평양 전략 ·····································································································70
[그림 2-11] 투키디데스의 함정 ················································································································70
[그림 2-12] 안보 딜레마 ··························································································································72
그림 차례경제･인문사회연구회
[그림 3-1] 생산가능 인구 감소 ················································································································78
[그림 3-2] 대학입학정원 및 인원 변화 ····································································································79
[그림 3-3] 포스트코로나 시대와 정부역할의 패러다임 변화 ·····································································85
[그림 3-4] ｢정부업무평가기본법｣에 근거한 행정기관별 업무평가 ····························································86
[그림 3-5] 경영평가의 연혁 ·····················································································································87
[그림 3-6] 공기업 및 준정부기관 경영실적평가 체계 ···············································································88
[그림 4-1] 생산요소와 산출량 ··················································································································92
[그림 4-2] 경제성장률과 요소별 성장기여 ································································································93
[그림 4-3] GDP 대비 무역비율 ···············································································································94
[그림 4-4] 서비스업 비중과 근로자 부가가치 ··························································································95
[그림 4-5] GDP와 민간부문 ····················································································································95
[그림 4-6] 연령대별 생산인구 ··················································································································96
[그림 4-7] 장기경제성장률 ·······················································································································97
[그림 4-8] 경제성장과 요소별 기여도 ······································································································97
[그림 4-9] 1인당 GDP 증가율 ················································································································98
[그림 4-10] 생산연령인구 ·························································································································98
[그림 4-11] 장기경제성장률 ·····················································································································99
[그림 4-12] 연령대별 경제활동참가율 ······································································································99
[그림 4-13] 인구피라미드 변화추이 ·······································································································100
[그림 4-14] 2020-2070년 출생아 수 추계 ··························································································101
[그림 4-15] 2020-2070년 총인구 전망 ·······························································································101
[그림 4-16] 생산연령인구 추계 ··············································································································102
[그림 4-17] 학력별 인구 추정: 2020-2070년 ······················································································104
[그림 4-18] 연령별 경제활동인구 추정: 2020-2070 ············································································105
[그림 4-19] 학력별 경제활동인구 추정: 2020-2070 ············································································105
[그림 4-20] 2020-2070 노동투입변화 추계(1) ····················································································106
[그림 4-21] 2020-2070 노동투입변화 추계(2) ····················································································107
[그림 4-22] 35세 미만 대졸 경제활동인구 ····························································································113
[그림 4-23] 2020-2040 취업자중 20-34세 취업자 비율변화 ·····························································113
[그림 5-1] 인구김소와 지방소멸 ·············································································································118
[그림 5-2] 이민만능론에서 이민대안론으로 ····························································································119
[그림 5-3] 가사서비스 홈페이지 및 요금체계 ························································································121